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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 16:25 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

LA
64.8%
ARI
35.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LA: Blaine Gabbert (ARI) -0.174 vs Jared Goff (LA) +0.143 EPA/dropback
  • ARI offense: -0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 24
–
ARI 19
Projected margin: LA by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

LA

Connor Barwin LB Out Forearm
Robert Woods WR Out Shoulder
Malcolm Brown RB Questionable Knee
Lance Dunbar RB Questionable Knee

ARI

John Brown WR Out Toe
Deone Bucannon LB Out Ankle
Rudy Ford S Out Knee
Corey Peters DT Out Ankle
Adrian Peterson RB Questionable Neck
Josh Mauro DT Questionable Ankle
Troy Niklas TE Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 32
–
ARI 16

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:47 FG LA (11:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – ARI 0
  • Q1 07:57 TD LA (7:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 81-G.Everett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [55-C.Jones]. LA 9 – ARI 0
  • Q1 02:57 TD LA (2:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass short left intended for 37-D.Foster INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree at ARI 41. 52-A.Ogletree for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 15 – ARI 0
  • Q2 07:44 TD ARI (7:44) 70-E.Boehm reported in as eligible. 35-E.Penny up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – ARI 6
  • Q2 03:30 TD ARI (3:30) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – ARI 13
  • Q2 00:04 FG LA (:04) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 19 – ARI 13
  • Q3 05:13 TD LA (5:13) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 12-S.Watkins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 25 – ARI 13
  • Q4 15:00 FG ARI (15:00) 4-P.Dawson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. LA 26 – ARI 16
  • Q4 06:21 FG LA (6:21) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 29 – ARI 16
  • Q4 02:00 FG LA (2:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 32 – ARI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 15 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 61%

    (11:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (7:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 81-G.Everett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [55-C.Jones].

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:04) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to LA 20, Center-49-J.Drescher. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at LA 37 for 17 yards (13-Ja.Brown).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 25%

    (14:56) 2-A.Lee punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Drescher, Touchback.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to ARI 33, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 10-B.Golden.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:02) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to ARI 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 30 for 10 yards (53-C.Thompson).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:55) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 3, Center-49-J.Drescher. 10-P.Cooper to LA 17 for 14 yards (13-Ja.Brown). PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at LA 3.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (10:12) 6-J.Hekker punts 70 yards to ARI 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:22) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to LA 40, Center-49-J.Drescher. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at ARI 30 for 30 yards (58-S.Wright).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 14 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 65%

    (15:00) 4-P.Dawson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to ARI 43, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 45 for 2 yards (89-T.Higbee).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 83%

    (11:03) 4-P.Dawson 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-M.Brockers), Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee, RECOVERED by LA-58-C.Littleton at LA 23. 58-C.Littleton to LA 42 for 19 yards (71-E.Watford).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (6:21) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (2:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.