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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 4-P.Dawson 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-M.Brockers), Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee, RECOVERED by LA-58-C.Littleton at LA 23. 58-C.Littleton to LA 42 for 19 yards (71-E.Watford).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.84 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model