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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 36

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-P.Dawson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.51 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model