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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 53

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 2-A.Lee punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model