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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 91

Los Angeles Rams 19 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 6-J.Hekker punts 70 yards to ARI 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.05 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 91, worth -5.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.84 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 48, worth -2.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP