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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 23

Los Angeles Rams 29 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model