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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 38

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.37 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model