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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Los Angeles Rams 19

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to LA 40, Center-49-J.Drescher. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at ARI 30 for 30 yards (58-S.Wright).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.52 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model