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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 6

Los Angeles Rams 26 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.54 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 6, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP