4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Los Angeles Rams 19

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 3, Center-49-J.Drescher. 10-P.Cooper to LA 17 for 14 yards (13-Ja.Brown). PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at LA 3.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model