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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
@
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 13:00 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

IND
24.1%
JAX
75.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: -0.239 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.013 vs Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.110 EPA/dropback
  • JAX offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 16
–
JAX 26
Projected margin: JAX by 10 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

IND

Darrell Daniels TE Out Hamstring
Ryan Kelly C Out Concussion
Rashaan Melvin CB Out Hand
Hassan Ridgeway DT Out Shoulder
Donte Moncrief WR Questionable Groin

JAX

Allen Hurns WR Out Ankle
Telvin Smith LB Out Concussion
Josh Wells T Out Concussion
Lerentee McCray LB Questionable Hamstring
Patrick Omameh G Questionable Quadricep
Jermey Parnell T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 10
–
JAX 30

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:23 TD JAX (6:23) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 11-M.Lee for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 12:46 FG JAX (12:46) 4-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. IND 0 – JAX 10
  • Q2 07:05 FG IND (7:05) 4-A.Vinatieri 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – JAX 10
  • Q2 02:00 TD JAX (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 84-K.Cole for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – JAX 16
  • Q3 10:38 TD JAX (10:38) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – JAX 22
  • Q3 06:49 TD IND (6:49) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. Penalty on JAX-22-A.Colvin, Defensive Holding, declined. IND 9 – JAX 24
  • Q3 00:37 FG JAX (:37) 4-J.Lambo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. IND 10 – JAX 27
  • Q4 02:57 FG JAX (2:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. IND 10 – JAX 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:45) 2-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 24%

    (9:05) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman pass short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to IND 22 for 29 yards (28-C.Milton). Fake Punt

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (12:46) 4-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 97%

    (7:05) 4-A.Vinatieri 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 50%

    (6:49) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. Penalty on JAX-22-A.Colvin, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (:37) 4-J.Lambo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:59) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to JAX 40, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-45-J.Vander Laan.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 40%

    (12:14) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to IND 4, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-40-T.Bohanon.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:56) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to JAX 42, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 26%

    (7:48) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to IND 14, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 89%

    (2:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 36 for 3 yards [91-Y.Ngakoue].

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 47%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief pushed ob at JAX 35 for 6 yards (21-A.Bouye).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 70%

    (:37) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-J.Doyle to JAX 24 for 8 yards (44-M.Jack).