4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(7:48) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to IND 14, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.49 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP