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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

What Actually Happened

(13:59) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to JAX 40, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-45-J.Vander Laan.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model