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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 5

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(:37) 4-J.Lambo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 5, worth +0.68 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP