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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 56

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 2-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model