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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 21

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.41 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model