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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 30

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 36 for 3 yards [91-Y.Ngakoue].

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.13 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model