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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:05) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman pass short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to IND 22 for 29 yards (28-C.Milton). Fake Punt

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.30 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model