Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 90

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

(9:56) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to JAX 42, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.21 EP
53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 90, worth -5.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model