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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 30

What Actually Happened

(1:05) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief pushed ob at JAX 35 for 6 yards (21-A.Bouye).

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.15 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model