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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(6:49) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. Penalty on JAX-22-A.Colvin, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model