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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2017-10-22 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

JAX
61.1%
IND
38.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.222 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to IND: Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.097 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.123 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 24
–
IND 19
Projected margin: JAX by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

JAX

Brandon Linder C Out Illness
Leonard Fournette RB Questionable Ankle
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Neck
Marqise Lee WR Questionable Knee

IND

Andrew Luck QB Out left Shoulder
Robert Turbin RB Out Elbow
Anthony Walker LB Out Hamstring
Darrell Daniels TE Questionable Knee
T.J. Green S Questionable Hamstring
Ryan Kelly C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 27
–
IND 0

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:33 TD JAX (9:33) (Run formation) 64-C.Reed reported in as eligible. 33-C.Ivory up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – IND 0
  • Q1 05:07 TD JAX (5:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 89-M.Lewis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – IND 0
  • Q2 07:43 FG JAX (7:43) 4-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 17 – IND 0
  • Q2 02:00 FG JAX (2:00) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 20 – IND 0
  • Q3 06:10 TD JAX (6:10) (Pass formation) 24-T.Yeldon up the middle for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 26 – IND 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:02) 2-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 16 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 36%

    (14:21) 2-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 87%

    (7:43) 4-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (5:55) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens. PENALTY on JAX-22-A.Colvin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 29.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:19) 2-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:11) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (1:47) (Run formation) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to JAX 6 for no gain (95-A.Jones).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (15:00) 3-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to IND 25, Center-43-M.Overton. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at IND 25 for no gain.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:49) 3-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to IND 15, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 14 at the 38
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 61%

    (6:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-J.Doyle to JAX 33 for 5 yards (20-J.Ramsey).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 87%

    (2:09) (Run formation) 40-T.Bohanon up the middle to IND 24 for no gain (95-J.Hankins).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 70%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 11-Q.Bray to JAX 31 for 3 yards (21-A.Bouye).