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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 24

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 4-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.69 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model