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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 6

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Run formation) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to JAX 6 for no gain (95-A.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.92 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 6, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model