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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens. PENALTY on JAX-22-A.Colvin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.26 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP