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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 56

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 2-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.73 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model