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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 11-Q.Bray to JAX 31 for 3 yards (21-A.Bouye).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.63 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.39 EP