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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 2-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.91 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model