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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 48

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 2-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.98 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model