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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 24

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:09) (Run formation) 40-T.Bohanon up the middle to IND 24 for no gain (95-J.Hankins).

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.92 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model