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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 86

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to IND 25, Center-43-M.Overton. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at IND 25 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.64 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 86, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 44, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP