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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 58

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.80 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model