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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2017-10-15 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 12.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

SF
21.2%
WAS
78.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.184 vs Brian Hoyer (SF) -0.030 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • WAS on 6 more days rest than SF

Predicted Final Score

SF 19
–
WAS 29
Projected margin: WAS by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

SF

Kyle Juszczyk RB Out Back
Adrian Colbert S Questionable Hamstring
Reuben Foster LB Questionable Ankle
Eric Reid S Questionable Knee
Dekoda Watson LB Questionable Groin
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Questionable Concussion

WAS

Josh Norman CB Out Rib
Ty Nsekhe T Out Core Muscle
Deshazor Everett S Doubtful Hamstring
Rob Kelley RB Doubtful Ankle
Trent Williams T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 24
–
WAS 26

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:21 TD WAS (10:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Doctson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 09:54 TD WAS (9:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 32-S.Perine for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – WAS 13
  • Q2 01:56 FG WAS (1:56) 3-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. SF 0 – WAS 17
  • Q2 00:03 TD SF (:03) 76-G.Gilliam reported in as eligible. 28-C.Hyde left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – WAS 17
  • Q3 09:45 FG SF (9:45) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 10 – WAS 17
  • Q3 03:06 TD SF (3:06) 28-C.Hyde right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – WAS 17
  • Q4 10:37 FG WAS (10:37) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. SF 17 – WAS 20
  • Q4 03:34 TD WAS (3:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 17 – WAS 26
  • Q4 02:08 TD SF (2:08) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep right to 19-A.Robinson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – WAS 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 26%

    (7:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to WAS 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:54) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to SF 39, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 18 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (5:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to WAS 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-88-G.Celek.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (2:00) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to SF 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:39) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to WAS 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 24%

    (8:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to WAS 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to WAS 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 14 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%

    (1:56) 3-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%

    (:03) 76-G.Gilliam reported in as eligible. 28-C.Hyde left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 70%

    (9:45) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:29) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to SF 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 81-T.Taylor to 50 for 39 yards (54-M.Foster; 55-C.Carter).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%

    (3:27) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (10:37) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:34) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to WAS 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 16 for 6 yards (46-M.Nzeocha).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%

    (1:00) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 20 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 28%

    (:09) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep right intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at WAS 32. 29-K.Fuller pushed ob at WAS 35 for 3 yards (81-T.Taylor).