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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to WAS 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model