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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 51

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to WAS 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.76 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -3.05 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model