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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 55

Washington Commanders 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to SF 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.89 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP