Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 62

Washington Commanders 17 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(7:29) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to SF 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 81-T.Taylor to 50 for 39 yards (54-M.Foster; 55-C.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP

54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.21 EP
46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model