Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 7

(5:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to WAS 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-88-G.Celek.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.42 EP
76% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model