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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 28

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.88 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model