Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 82

Washington Commanders 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(6:54) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to SF 39, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.12 EP
55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model