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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 45

Washington Commanders 26 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +0.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP