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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 57

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to WAS 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.88 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 57, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model