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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 30

Washington Commanders 14 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 3-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.83 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model