MIA @ NYJ — 4th & Data

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HC Adam Gase

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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles

Sunday 2017-09-24 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

MIA

55.7%

NYJ

44.3%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NYJ offense: -0.216 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
NYJ defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
MIA offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
MIA defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
QB edge to MIA: Josh McCown (NYJ) -0.096 vs Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.071 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIA 23

–

NYJ 21

Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

MIA

Rey Maualuga LB Out Hamstring

Jordan Phillips DT Doubtful Ankle

Jay Ajayi RB Questionable Knee

Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Knee

DeVante Parker WR Questionable Ankle

Damien Williams RB Questionable Rib

NYJ

Eric Tomlinson TE Out Elbow

Brian Winters G Out Abdomen

Jordan Leggett TE Doubtful Knee

Rontez Miles S Doubtful Eye

Will Tye TE Questionable Illness

Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 6

–

NYJ 20

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 07:21 FG NYJ (7:21) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. MIA 0 – NYJ 3
Q2 01:51 TD NYJ (1:51) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NYJ 9
Q3 09:52 TD NYJ (9:52) 79-B.Qvale and 97-L.Thomas reported in as eligible. 29-B.Powell left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. MIA 0 – NYJ 16
Q3 01:38 FG NYJ (1:38) 7-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. MIA 0 – NYJ 20
Q4 00:06 TD MIA (:06) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 11-D.Parker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-32-J.Burris, Defensive Holding, declined. MIA 6 – NYJ 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(13:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 61 yards to MIA 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to MIA 33 for 13 yards (23-T.Brooks; 54-B.Carter).
Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 31%

(11:08) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NYJ 10, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-92-J.Denney.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 83%

(5:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-V.Taylor), Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Q1 MIA 4th & 19 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(3:10) 16-M.Haack punts 46 yards to NYJ 28, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley ran ob at NYJ 43 for 15 yards.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 41%

(1:03) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to MIA 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.
Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(13:06) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to NYJ 37, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

(7:21) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(6:28) 16-M.Haack punts 55 yards to NYJ 22, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 24 for 2 yards (31-M.Thomas).
Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(4:16) 4-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to MIA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
Q2 MIA 4th & 18 at the 93

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(2:36) 16-M.Haack punts 48 yards to NYJ 45, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 48 for 3 yards (45-M.Hull). PENALTY on NYJ-51-J.Stanford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 39. Penalty on NYJ-21-M.Claiborne, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54%

(:28) 16-M.Haack punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.
Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(14:07) 16-M.Haack punts 43 yards to NYJ 37, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley to MIA 49 for 14 yards (48-M.Gray).
Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 72

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP

p(convert) 40%

(8:37) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack pass deep right intended for 88-L.Carroo INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Brooks at MIA 49. 23-T.Brooks ran ob at MIA 49 for no gain.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

(1:38) 7-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 21

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EP

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

(13:32) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep right to 14-J.Landry (21-M.Claiborne).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 53

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 21%

(10:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to MIA 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.
Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 42

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 46%

(7:41) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 11-D.Parker to NYJ 38 for 4 yards (51-J.Stanford).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 67 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(2:25) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to MIA 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 20. 19-J.Grant to MIA 20 for no gain (32-J.Burris).