Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(8:37) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack pass deep right intended for 88-L.Carroo INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Brooks at MIA 49. 23-T.Brooks ran ob at MIA 49 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP