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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 67

New York Jets 20 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to MIA 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 20. 19-J.Grant to MIA 20 for no gain (32-J.Burris).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.66 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model