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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 16-M.Haack punts 55 yards to NYJ 22, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 24 for 2 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model