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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NYJ 10, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-92-J.Denney.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.81 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model