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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 44

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to MIA 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.00 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model