Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 93

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 16-M.Haack punts 48 yards to NYJ 45, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 48 for 3 yards (45-M.Hull). PENALTY on NYJ-51-J.Stanford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 39. Penalty on NYJ-21-M.Claiborne, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.57 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.93 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 93, worth -5.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model